Geologists do n’t have a crystal ball that can foresee succeeding temblor , but seismic specialists in the Nipponese government believe that the odds of a big one are creeping upwards . According to Japan ’s Earthquake Research Committee , there ’s an 80 percent chance that a megaquake could occur in the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years . That ’s slenderly up from the 70 to 80 percentage hazard that was put out last year .
“ It ’s been 79 year since the last earthquake , and the possible action of another earthquake occurring is move up every yr at a yard of by about one per centum , ” an official of the Earthquake Research Committee ’s secretariat toldAFP .
The Nankai Trough chip at out around 900 km ( 559 miles ) along the Confederate States of Japan ’s biggest island of Honshu . It ’s a subduction zone situate where the Philippine Sea Plate is being subducted beneath the Eurasian Plate , clear it a hotbed of seismic bodily process .
Map of Japan showing the location of the Nankai Trough.Image credit: Geodaugherty viaWikimedia Commons(CC BY-SA 3.0)
It ’s ill-famed for itsmegathrust earthquakes , powerful seismal events that occur where one architectonic collection plate is force beneath another , free colossal quantities of energy .
If the Nankai Trough have a major milk shake - up , it could turn out to be devastating – a peril the Nipponese Government takes very seriously . Nankai megathrust earthquakes are regard a top anteriority of Japan ’s disaster management scheme and the government has introduce schemes to machinate for a potential gala .
One of the most late Nankai earthquake earn the grim distinction of being one of the deadliest in the world . In 1946 , an 8.1 magnitude earthquake stemming from the Nankai claimed the lives of 1,362 multitude . It destroyed or damage over 36,000 houses in southern Honshu and Shikoku , while a further 2,100 properties were moisten by by 6 - meter - high ( 20 - infantry ) tsunami waves create by the quake .
Forecasting these events is n’t easy , though . Per theUSGS , scientists can not predict earthquake , note that no one has everpredicteda major earthquake . However , they note that it is possible to “ count on the chance that a significant seism will occur in a specific area within a sure number of years . ”
In other words , it ’s not like a conditions forecast ; it ’s more like knowing the odds in a lineup game – you ca n’t predict your next card , but you may estimate the likelihood of a certain handwriting based on the deck .
Thenew menace levelissued by Japan ’s Earthquake Research Committee is similar to estimates published in the journalScientific Reportsback in 2023 , which plant there ’s a 70 to 80 percent chance that the Nankai Trough Megathrust Earthquake will fall out in the next three decade .
The investigator also projected that a Nankai megathrust quake could be devastating , potentially causing more extensive damage than the2011 Great East Japan Earthquakewith fatality peradventure exceeding 320,000 .
However , once again , they stressed that their forecasts were far from bent in stone .
“ Statistically speaking , Nankai Trough earthquakes are potential to go on once every 90–150 class base on preceding earthquakes , ” Professor Yoshioka Shoichi , a professor at the Research Center for Urban Safety and Security , said in a2023 program line .
“ rich earthquake prediction must accurately extrapolate three factor : the location of happening , the time of occurrence , and the magnitude of the earthquake . Among the three , it is in particular hard to predict the timing of an earthquake , ” he added .
